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Just over a week ago a video was released by Zaytuna College, where I teach astronomy, mathematics, and Islamic jurisprudence, about sighting the new crescent moon to mark the beginnings of the lunar months of the Islamic calendar.

For years, the start of the Islamic months has been hotly debated between two camps. One camp advocates to adhere to the tradition of the Prophet Muhammad, peace and blessing of God be upon him, to go out and actually witness the new crescent moon, and then have the witnesses testify to the sighting to mark its beginning. However, this approach has an inherent variability in it because the new crescent moon will reappear 29 or 30 days after its last appearance. The other camp advocates determining the beginning of the months through an astronomical calculated approach such that the calendar can be predetermined for years in advance.

Both sides have their arguments, and perhaps both have merit, but one cannot feel a calculation. A calculation is abstract. It is lifeless. To most, it means nothing because they cannot apprehend how the resulting conclusive decision to start the month was derived. For most, they would not understand how to go about the calculation itself, they would in essence be calculatedly illiterate.

It baffles me a bit that the camp arguing for the calculation approach always quotes the tradition (Hadith) from the Prophet Muhammad, peace be upon him, where He says “We are an unlettered community, we neither write nor calculate, the month consists of 29 (motioning with his hands showing 29 fingers) or 30 (motioning with his hands showing 30 fingers) days“. The camp arguing for calculations cites this hadith and says that modern Muslims are no longer a people that neither write nor calculate so we should use calculations. This tradition, however, should be interpreted as a description of the community at that time not a prescription of how the Muslim community should be. Not all the Muslims from 1400 years ago were unlettered. Some did know how to write and very likely some did know how to perform calculations, as they did have and use an intercalated lunar calendar which does require knowing how to do some calculations. However, I would argue, that most people, Muslim or otherwise are illiterate when it comes to the mathematics and the understanding needed to carry out the calculations needed to determine the start of a lunar month, so the tradition does in fact still describe people today as it did 1400 years ago.

To get a sense of what I mean, the following must be determined for any given time on any given date to determine the position of the moon in the sky:

• The time must be determined in Julian Centuries
• Next, the Moon’s mean longitude is determined
• Then, the Moon’s elongation
• followed by determining the Sun’s anomaly (which has its own set of calculations)
• Next, the Moon’s anomaly is determined.
• A series of Periodic terms need to be summed for the moon’s longitude and distance from the Earth.
• Then the Eccentricity of the orbit of the Earth around the sun is needed
• Finally, the geocentric longitude, geocentric latitude, and geocentric distance of the moon can be calculated.
• The whole process is then repeated over and over for every second until the geocentric longitude position of the moon matches that of the sun, of course, further calculations are needed to obtain the geocentric longitude of the sun as well.

Did I lose any of you with any of the above steps?

So where does that leave the common Muslims today regarding how to determine the start of the lunar Islamic months? There is a principle in problem-solving known as Occam’s Razor. Briefly, it is generally understood that with competing theories or solutions to a problem, the simpler one is to be preferred. To that end, there is another well-known tradition from the Prophet Muhammad, peace be upon him, where He says, “Do not start the fast until you see the new crescent moon, and do not break the fast until you see the new crescent moon. If the new crescent moon is obscured from you, then complete a full thirty days”. This approach entails going outside once a lunar month to search for the new crescent moon in the post-sunset sky. It only requires the ability to see and of course, count 29 days from the last time the new crescent was seen. It is clearly the simpler solution to the problem of determining the beginning of the lunar months.

The simpler solution does not exclude the possibility of using astronomy to help one find the moon in the sky, it just does not require a person to learn astrodynamics to complete lengthy calculations in abstraction.

Certainty is a beautiful thing. Nothing brings true certainty better than experience. Experiencing the new crescent moon appearing in the post-sunset sky is something that can’t be explained, it must be felt. This evening, 29 days since the last time we saw the new crescent moon, we went out to search for that elusive sliver of light. It was hard. The new crescent moon this month was incredibly thin. A delight to see. Bringing a filling of the heart with both Joy and Certainty. Here is this month’s moon, with its tips pointing up and to the left, if you watched the video you’ll know what I mean.

With the sighting of this moon, the Blessed month of Ramadan comes to a close and it ushers in the Festival of Breaking Fast. A joyous day where Muslims all over the world celebrate by eating, drinking, and Remembering their Lord, for whom they abstained from food and drink for an entire month during the day.

Eid Mubarak to all my Muslim readers, and as always Peace to all.

On Friday April 1st, 2022 I went out with my family to seek out the new crescent moon that would mark the beginning of Ramadan this year. The probability forecast was not favorable for a naked-eye sighting, but since April 1st was the 29th day of Sha’baan, the month preceding Ramadan, it was obligatory to go out and search. This is what we saw.

We saw nothing and it was not a surprise. What did surprise me was that reports from as far east as Texas and Louisiana were coming in with naked-eye reports. They seemed very incredulous given that the moon was only 0.6% illuminated in that part of the country with an age of 18 to 19 hours, we would have been finding near record breaking sightings. It was highly unlikely.

Then a report from San Diego, CA came in with 10 to 12 individuals sighting the moon but ONLY with binoculars. It was reasonable as that was what the probability maps were suggesting. Since I work with CrescentWatch to field reports and make monthly announcements of crescent moon sightings, we considered the report and inquired if any of the observers were able to see the moon with the naked-eye. The lead sighter reported in the negative. We at CrescentWatch did not accept the report as a valid sighting as CrescentWatch policy for a valid sighting requires a naked-eye sighting in adherence to the the Prophetic tradition of the Prophet Muhammad, peace and blessing of God upon him. The night was fraught with confusion however, because a second organization that CrescentWatch collaborates with, The Central Hilal Committe (CHC) did accept that report and announced the beginning of Ramadan.

Many mosques and organizations questioned the announcement and were surprised to learn that the CHC did accept optical aid sightings, as many thought they adhered to naked-eye sightings as well. Later that night, additional information was obtained from the San Diego group, a very large group numbering between 60 and 100 people, that there was one adult man who saw the crescent “for 1 to 2 seconds” and there were three adult women, one an experienced sighter, and two who were first time sighters, saw the crescent as well, but no details about what they saw was given. This seemed to placate many questioners and for many they fasted on Saturday April 2nd.

That report was fraught with doubt and so CrescentWatch did not accept the report and announced that Ramadan would commence on Sunday April 3rd, placing Saturday April 2nd as the infamous Day of Doubt, which the Prophet Muhammad, peace and blessing of God be upon him, said it was a day when fasting was not allowed.

I am not blaming anyone for fasting on Saturday, and hope that all efforts and fasts are accepted.

What is important is that every individual has established certainty for themselves before starting to fast. If those who fasted Saturday were certain the month had started then they are fine. And those who did not fast on Saturday because they were not certain, then they are fine as well.

But what prompted me to write this post, is that on Saturday evening after sunset I went out with my family again to sight the moon and this time we did see the moon. Here is what I saw and photographed.

I posted it on social media and quickly people responded. For the most part liking and thanking me for posting it. However, some called it a Second Day Moon, by virtue of how big it is. This is the concern that I am writing about. This is clearly a first day moon and when I compare this moon with several other large first day moons, it makes me wonder what brings someone to make such a statement?

Here are other true first day moons as I either photographed them on the 29th or 30th day, and the day prior no moon was visible in the post sunset sky. Do they look similar?

The following table shows the pertinent data for each of these first day moons

Month and Year	Percent Illumination	Elongation	Age	Lag Time
Ramadan 2022	3.4%	21°	44 hours	94 minutes
Rabi al-Awwal 2021	3.6%	21°	39 hours	64 minutes
Rabi ath-Thaani 2021	1.9%	15.75°	28 hours	48 minutes
Shawwal 2018	2.7%	18°	32.5 hours	68 minutes

How the crescent moon appears depends so much on where a person happens to be on the earth at the time of conjunction and at the sunset following conjunction or the day after that. The moon is not always visible on the day of conjunction, in fact more often than not, it is not visible on the day of conjunction. I also think those people who make such comments simply do not know what they are looking at and unfortunately expose their ignorance by saying things like “that looks like a second day moon”, like they have seen and compared both first day and second day moons. How often does anyone go out to look at a second day crescent moon?

The Prophet Muhammad, peace and blessing of God be upon him, stated in one of his traditions regard the end days, that near the end of time, people would see a first day moon and claim it is a second day moon. This is frightening, as I have been hearing such comments for many years now.

What I recommend is that those who come out of the woodworks once or twice a year to seek out information regarding the start of the month, that they should make it a practice that they go out once a month and seek out the new crescent moon for themselves. Observe with their own eyes what a new crescent moon is and how its appearance changes from month to month. Experience the amazing and fulfilling moment when the crescent moon suddenly appears before their eyes as if it was brought into existence from non-existence by the Creator of all things.

Al-Hakim in his collection of hadith relates that the Prophet Muhammad, peace and blessings of God be upon him said, The best of God’s servants are those who are vigilant in observing the sun, moon, stars, and shadows for determining the times of remembrance of God.

Only then do I think our vocal friends will find the temperance in their comments regarding the effort and struggle that the vigilant moon sighters make in keeping time.

I hope everyone of my Muslim readers, brothers and sisters, find great solace in the month of Ramadan, that they honor Ramadan by following the sunnah of the Prophet Muhammad, peace and blessings of God be upon him, and by virtue of their fasting find Forgiveness, Fortitude, and Felicity from God.

Peace to you all.

May 11th, 2021 marked the 29th day of Ramadan this year. As 29 days earlier, we were surprised by a very thin new crescent moon appearing in our sky when we were not expecting to see it on April 12th. Surprise! The moon appeared where the sighting probability maps indicated that it could not be seen except with an optical aid, however to be fair, my location was on the borderline between needing an optical aid and able to see it in perfect conditions.

So on May 11th, I was not expecting to see the moon. The probability of seeing was near zero. Given the moon was only several hours past conjunction and that it set a mere 10 minutes after the sun set, I had a very high level of confidence that we would not see it and that Ramadan this year would be competed as a 30 day month.

As we waited for the sun to drop below the horizon we struggled not to look at it and developing the dreaded green spots that remain as phantom images burned into one’s retina, making seeing subtle things, like the new moon, very difficult. Was this the last sunset of Ramadan? Would something miraculous happen and the new moon become visible to us?

It was not long before I had no doubt, no doubt at all that Ramadan was not over.

The horizon was clear, and 10 minutes flew by very quickly and without a sight of the moon. But wait…. what is that?!

Is that the moon?! So many times in the past, reports came in of something that looked like this condensation trail with claims of it being the moon. It is understandable, the excitement is high in anticipation of either starting Ramadan or ending it that we sometimes can fool ourselves into thinking we are seeing what we really are not seeing. I have “seen” moons in the sky that I wanted to see in my mind’s eye and it has confused me.

But in the end, we left for home grateful for another day of fasting. It is strange, we enter into Ramadan foregoing our food and drink in exchange for hunger and thirst because our Creator asked us to do so, and we obeyed. By the time Ramadan is nearing its end, the hunger and thirst for food and drink we experienced at the beginning of the month, has seemed to have vanished, and now our hunger can only be satiated by standing in prayer, and the thirst we find could only be slaked by the sweet recitation of the Quran. A deep longing emerges hoping that Ramadan never ends. But alas, time marches on.

Shawwal, the month that trails Ramadan, comes with its first day as the Festival of Breaking Fast. As with all the months in the Islamic calendar, the beginnings are marked with either a naked eye witnessing of the new crescent moon or the completion of the month as a 30 day month. Ramadan this year was completed as a 30 day month. Therefore, technically, sighting the new crescent of Shawwal was not needed, but hey that never stopped me before.

As I headed out to sight it, I was expecting a nice thick and bright crescent, as the moon would be 32 hours past conjunction. Ha! Was I wrong!

As I stood there marveling at how thin of a crescent it was, I thought, after 30 years of looking for new crescents, the one thing that was predictable about the moon is its unpredictability. We humans have tried to nail down a method of predictability for literally thousands of years. We have yet to be successful. Even though our modern astronomical calculations are unbelievably accurate in determining the location of the moon in the sky, we have no method of predicting where or when the moon can be seen with any level of certainty. Our best effort so far, an extrapolation method using regression analysis of past data. Is it a good method? Well, in spite of centuries of observation data, the moon still surprises us.

So Ramadan this year comes to an end. As the moon appeared in the sky, it was accompanied by a familiar night traveler, the planet Venus.

As the moon and Venus hung there in the sky, a feeling of serenity and melancholy washed over me. It has always been a moment of great succor for me when I witness the moon in the silence that comes with the evening twilight. I almost need to experience it every month just to know that there is order in all the madness that ensues in the world. The moon returns each month, the sky still glows and time moves on, and with it Ramadan has left.

I already miss Ramadan; the struggle for something greater than myself, for a reason greater than myself, for the sweetness of breaking fast, for the comradery and closeness between family and friends when we sit together to enjoy our evening meal and the rush in the pre-dawn hours to prepare and eat with a looming deadline hanging over us, for the hours spent standing in prayer hoping for salvation from our less than perfect lives, for the melodic recitation of a Book that contains the speech not of anything or anyone of this world.

My closing prayer this Ramadan, Oh God, please bring me to another Ramadan!

So as this Ramadan ends, I must remind myself that this is not the end, but just the beginning of another year. Armed with a renewed spirit and commitment to do better, be better, and live better, we part our time with this Ramadan and hope to meet it again in 12 more moons in a state better than we left it.

With that, I wish all of my Muslim patrons a heart felt Eid Mubarak!

And as always to all of you, until next time – Peace.

Well, as I have done for the last three decades, I went out to look for the new crescent moon. This was an important moon to sight as it would mark the start of Ramadan, the month of fasting in Islam. The moon never disappoints, and from the photo below, I think you can see what I mean.

Now that is a pretty stark moon, but I must admit, it was not that easy to see. In fact, I did not see this moon with my naked eyes. I tried my hardest, but it was three of my assistants, as I lovingly call them, who have been my companions when I go out to photograph the moon and for that matter almost anytime I go out to photograph the beauty of our world. They saw it first and were able to track its movement in the sky for almost 10 minutes before I could make a photo. I did not deny that they were seeing it, it was just that I could not believe it. This moon is only 24.5 hours old past conjunction. Its probability of being seen was such that optical aids would be needed to see it, in our area. For me in fact, that was the case with my half-century+ old eyes. But thank God for young sharp eyes! they first caught a glimpse of it at around 8:00 pm PDT, and they were unsure at first. It kept coming in and out of view for them, they kept saying that they saw it, but then were not sure and did not want to commit. But by 8:12 pm, when this photo was made, they were 100% certain and their eyes were locked on it and directed me exactly to where I should point the camera, and sure enough, it was right there.

But that photo above is not what they saw. That is what I rendered from the digital capture to show the absolute grandeur of the moon. This is more like what they saw.

This rendition, which has just been touched up for removing dust particles on the sensor and a touch of sharpening for web presentation. Here you can see just how faint that moon was. I could not see this moon, and that made this sighting very exhilarating! For the first time, My kids were able to out-sight their father, and that made me very proud of what they are capable of. I don’t know how many more moons I will be given the blessing of seeing, and holding down this beautiful tradition has been a trying struggle against an onslaught of calculation-based soothsayers bent on dictating their own beginnings of the months, rather than reveling in the patience that comes with starting the months when God wants us to start it by giving us the gift of this amazing sight. Knowing that my children have the ability to keep this tradition alive is very reassuring and renews my excitement about moon sighting. I pray that they will be the standard-bearers once I am gone.

Anyone who goes out to look for the new crescent moon must know the blessing and joy that comes when it is seen. Just a little while ago, a colleague of mine sent me a message that his young five-year-old daughter started to cry because she did not get to see the new moon because of clouds blocking her view. This is how we should all react! In her still pure innocent state, she knows what a blessing it is to see the new crescent moon, and expressed her great displeasure that she was not going to see it on this night.

Why has the Muslim community forgotten this great blessing? Have we become so blinded by our own knowledge to think that an abstract calculation of probabilities of seeing the moon can be a surrogate for actually seeing it? Plato is reported to have said that he takes as quacks those who establish proofs from probabilities. Why did the ancients know what we have forgotten?

I think it is high time that, in spite of our advanced knowledge of astronomy and mathematics, that we humble ourselves enough to go outside once a month and look up into the post-sunset sky and just allow the blessings of the emergence of a new moon to penetrate our heart and soul so that we too can feel the elation that the new moon brings, and the increased longing when its beautiful sight is withheld. Do not let your self rob you of a great blessing. In 29 days, we will go out once more to look for the moon that is to mark the end of Ramadan and the beginning of Eid al-Fitr, the Festival of Breaking Fast. Make it point to feel, no one else can feel it for you and it just cannot be described, you just have to taste it for yourself.

To all my Muslim brothers and sisters, Ramadan Mubarak!

Until next time, Peace to you all.

Yesterday, May 15th 2018, was the 29th day of the Islamic month of Sha’baan.  It was the critical day to go out and site the new moon for the month of Ramadan.  Unfortunately, no one saw the crescent moon last evening.  Even more disappointing, was that there was a claim that the moon was seen through a telescope down in Southern California.  The claim was incredulous and by 9 pm last night many organizations had announced that based on no valid sighting reports that Ramadan would start on Thursday May 17th.

Then this evening, after sunset this was the view in the western sky.

Without a doubt what you are seeing in this photo is the first day moon of Ramadan.  And without any doubt I know there will be people who will make the assertion that this is a second day moon.  One only needs to compare this moon too any of the other first day crescent moons on this site like the moon from earlier this year in the article titled Blue Is Peace.  You can compare for yourself and tell me if this evening’s moon is not a first day moon.

What is more phenomenal, is that those who claim it to be a second day moon, probably have never gone out to see a new moon in the first place!  The audacity!

Ramadan has finally started.  We begin fasting tomorrow.  Ramadan Mubarak to all my Muslim readers, and Peace to all.

Today was the 29th day of the Sacred month of Rajab in the Islamic Calendar. It is the the 7th month in the Islamic year and proceeds the Holy month of Ramadan by two months.  Sighting its new crescent is first in line to accurately determining the start of Ramadan as it sets up the correct sighting day for the 8th month known as Shabaan.  Today was that crucial day for sighting Shabaan.

It was a touch and go day if the new moon of Shabaan would be seen at all.  As the afternoon unfolded for us here on the West Coast, I received reports from further east that the sky was clouded over by other moon sighters.  It was looking grim for us as well.  We had on and off rain all day and as I pulled up to our new sighting location in the Santa Cruz mountains, it was not looking good.

My close friend and fellow moonsighter was about 50 or so miles north standing on Mount Tamalpais had much better conditions and I was hoping that at least he would see it.  Here is the sky he had.

My assistants  standing with me on that wind blown ridge started to lose hope as it started to rain on us.  I took off my jacket and covered the camera on the tripod and said, “we wait it out”.  There is always hope.  The rain slowly subsided.  The clouds started to break and I became even more hopeful, while the others not so much.  Slowly the breaks in the clouds became bigger and then smaller.  Gaps would open and our eyes played tricks on us as we thought we saw it and then not.

The all of a sudden at 8:02 pm PDT my phone rang, it was a text from my friend up north.  He saw the moon with 2 other adult males and one adult female for a total of 4 witnesses.  I was both elated and saddened at the same time as it was starting to look grim for us again.  But we pushed on.  The moon was still in the sky and if we needed to we would stay there until moon set.  We kept searching, the clouds kept passing in and out leaving gaps where we needed to look.  Then my oldest assistant cried out, “I think I see it Allahu Akbar,…No…maybe…I don’t know”.  Then one of my other assistants said the same.  I was still “in the clouds”.

Then both of those assistants cry out “There it is, Allahu Akbar! I see it”.  The other two “Where, where?”  There is confusion as I and the other two tried to find it.  Descriptions were not clear as to where to look.  Then all of a sudden, right in a gap between the clouds, I see it. “Allahu Akbar!!!!”.  I quickly point the camera at it, and I snap off one exposure.  Then I try to point it out to my other two assistants.  While I try to get some more exposures.  The moon sank quickly behind the clouds below it, allowing only one good exposure of the new moon of Shabaan.  We sighted it at 8:07 pm PDT with about an azimuth of 280 degrees and an altitude of just 3 fingers above the horizon.  

Not as artistically placed as usually try to do, but this time I caught that moon just in the nick of time.  In the end we were elated.  We went out and fulfilled our Sunnah of seeing the new crescent moon.  We are taking back this sunnah.  We will not let it be lost.  One month from now, that is in 29 days, count them and go out and look for the the moon of Ramadan and take back the sunnah for yourself.  You will not be disappointed.

Until next time, Shabaan Mubarak and Peace to all!

Ramadan is quickly coming to a close.  As I write, the 28th day is starting to wane.  I always feel melancholy as Ramadan prepares to leave us.  The abstaining from food and drink is not always so pleasant, but we learn to patiently deal with it as we move through the month.  The pangs of hunger, continuously reminding us of the state we are in, become dull and we don’t notice them so much by month’s end.  We start to turn inward and work on our spiritual-selves.  We pray more.  We read the Qur’an more.  We reflect on our shortcomings and work on becoming better humans.  We seek forgiveness from our Lord.  We give charity to those who are less fortunate.  We feed people.  The community comes together each night.  Camaraderie builds.  Old friends become new again.   The relationship with our Creator becomes stronger.  We become more grateful for what we have.  By month’s end, the heart is overflowing with love, compassion, gratitude and hope.

So, it is only natural that one would feel sad to see all of this vanish with the close of the month.

The month of Ramadan also brings with it some amazing opportunities for what is to come once we leave this world.  The Prophet Muhammad (peace and blessings of God be upon him) stated that the beginning of Ramadan is Mercy, the middle of Ramadan is Forgiveness and the end of Ramadan is Freedom from the Hell-Fire.  Likewise He (peace be upon him) stated Woe to those who fast Ramadan and are not emancipated from the Fire.  This brings on a great urgency as Ramadan closes  with increased worship in the hopes of finding that freedom.

This year, 2016, we find ourselves planning to search for the new moon of the month of Shawwal, marking the end of Ramadan, on July 4th!  Here in the United States of America, of course July 4th is Independence Day, the day the founders of this great country liberated themselves from the tyranny of King George III of England in 1776.  From the location where I normally sight the new crescent moons, I can see nearly the entire San Francisco Bay Area.  It will be interesting to see all the firework displays from there all happening at the same time, at a great distance however, but nonetheless that will be a lot of fireworks!

It struck me odd this year that we are ending the month of Ramadan with increased effort to find freedom from the Fire, and we will be closing out the month celebrating freedom with fire. I’m sure there is something deep to think about there but I have some more spiritual work to tend to.

So to all my readers, a pre-Eid Mubarak and have a safe and happy 4th of July!

Until next time, Peace.

P.S.  Please remember to go out and search for the new crescent on July 4th.  I’ll be at Russian Ridge, my usual place, if anyone is interested in joining me.

Ramadan Mubarak!

The new crescent moon of Ramadan 1437 (2016) was seen this evening by a group of crescent chasers on top the northern Santa Cruz Mountains in Russian Ridge Open Space Preserve.  The sky was somewhat foreboding as it laced itself with clouds right where we expected the moon.

At about 8:45 pm, one of the chasers thought he saw it but he lost it in the clouds as the clouds moved.  Then at about 8:55 pm we re-established its sighting as it once again re-emerged from the clouds.  Several in the group of about 15 to 20 onlookers were able to see it.

A fine a moon as I have ever seen, it was incredibly thin in a dim sky.  Once we had it in our sites, I trained the camera on it and made four images.  This one shows it best.

The sight of the new moon never ceases to amaze me.  This one literally took my breath away when I saw it.  I wish the photo could convey what I felt.

Ramadan Mubarak!

Yesterday, July 16th, was the 29th day of Ramadan in the Islamic year 1436, or common era year of 2015.  It was a day of great anticipation.  Will we see the moon and end the fast or will it go on for another day?  This Ramadan started without any contention at all!  It was a refreshing respite from all the drama that is usually associated with the starts and stops of the Islamic months due to the confusion about seeing the new crescent moon.  But as far as I could tell, the entire Muslim world began fasting on the same day!  One week into the month, I started looking forward to the end of the month not to determine the if the moon would be seen or not, but to get a handle on if we would face a chaotic evening of chasing down errant reports all over the world.  I researched two primary topics: crescent visibility probability curves and weather history.

The probability curves for July 16th are shown below.  How they are generated is a topic on its own and is based on regression models and requires oodles of data from past sightings.  The more data you have the more accurate the curves will predict the probability of seeing the new crescent.  The curves are broken down into various regions shown by the different colors indicating how easy it will be to see the crescent.  Zone A: easily visible to the unaided eye, Zone B: visible under perfect atmospheric conditions, Zone C: visible to the unaided eye after found with optical aide, Zone D: only visible with binoculars or conventional telescopes, Zone E: not visible with conventional telescopes, Zone F: below Danjon Limit (7°). Click on the image for a larger view.

Now before I go on let me qualify something.  I started sighting the moon over 20 years ago.  I have gone to look for it every month.  I have seen many moons.  The majority of those 20 years of sighting were made with no prior astronomical or probability prediction knowledge.  I would always just based the sighting day 29 days later from the previous day I saw the moon.  That is all one needs to know.

However over those years one gets to know what the moon looks like, where it will  be in the sky in any given season, what orientation the moon will have and so on.  Slowly as crescent moon sighting became more contentious I began to bolster my empirical knowledge with astronomical and probabilistic tools.  I also started to teach astronomy, first at the elementary public school level and slowly moving up to higher levels until now at the college level.  Now coupling both the 20 years of empirical knowledge and with some science it is not difficult to predict if the crescent will be seen, especially in one’s own locality.

So as I looked into where the moon might be seen yesterday what I noticed was that the best place on the planet was out in the South Pacific.  Should not be a problem, no one lives on the water.  However South America could have reports.  In the last several years we have had some very strange and unverifiable reports coming from the south especially from Chile.  But most of South America was in the Zone B, and given perfect atmospheric conditions – meaning the skies needed to be totally clear we very well could receive reports from there.  So I looked into the weather history of the region in Chile where we have some contacts that have given us reports in the past.

In the month of July South America is in the midst of winter and in Chile 67% of the month of July is under cloudy and overcast skies.  I did not think a report from Chile would come in this year.  However, yesterday evening, Chile had clear skies!  The interesting result is that Chile had a negative sighting as well as all of South America, except for one report coming out of Bogota, Columbia, and that sighting was with a high-powered telescope.

Why is that important?  For one it was made with a telescope and that does not constitute a valid sighting according to Islamic Law.  Second it was a high-powered telescope.  Why?  If you look at the lunar age of the moon in the best location in Zone A it is only 23.11 hours past conjunction.  And in Zone B, where the telescope sighting was made it was only 19.03 hours old past conjunction. Conjunction is the instant of the birth of the new moon.

A 23 hour old moon is very difficult to see by the unaided eye, if at all.  Here is just such a moon from ten years ago.  The Islamic month was Rajab, and it took place on August 5th, 2005, almost ten years ago to the month.  Click on the image to see it in full.

Last night, the contentions for the sightings did not come from where we expected them, South America.  They cropped up from my own backyard here in the San Francisco Bay Area and a couple other places in California.  In California, the age of the moon was roughly 24.8 hours old.  Not much older than the moon shown in the photo above. In San Diego, it was 24.35 hours old.  In San Francisco, 24.88 hours old.  In the middle of the state 24.82 hours old.  This time of the year, the orientation of the crescent is as shown in the photo.  The limbs should run from about 2:00 to about 7:00 o’Clock on the clock dial.  This orientation of the moon’s limbs changes through the seasons.  In the summer and winter it is oriented as shown in the photo, with some slight variations, while in the spring the lit portion is on the bottom and the limbs point upwards and in autumn a bit more steeper running from 1 o’Clock to about 6 o’Clock.  This is important as we will see below, so keep this in mind.

The sighting curves are based on five parameters that need to be met in order for the moon to be seen easily by the unaided eye.  Those parameters are, age of the moon beyond conjunction, the time between sunset and moonset (known as the lag time), the elongation (a geometric orientation of the Earth, Moon and Sun past conjunction), the % illumination of the moon and the altitude of the moon at sunset above the horizon.  The criteria for sighting a moon with the unaided eye are as follows:

Age: 18 hours

Lag time: 40 minutes

Elongation: 12°

% Illumination: 1%

Altitude: 5°

Let me further qualify what these values indicate.  Neither one is more important than another.  The probability of the moon’s visibility cannot be determined by just one or two of these parameters.  Each parameter needs to be met.  The values given here are the absolute minimum values that are needed for the moon to be seen by the unaided eye.  Now just because the age of the moon is greater than the minimum 18 hours  will not alone make it visible, especially if for example the lag time is less than the 40 minutes.  Likewise, if the moon’s age was, for example, 28 hours old, but the lag time was say 15 minutes or that altitude was only 2°, the moon will still not be seen by the unaided eye, or it will be very difficult at best.

The conditions for the moon shown above from 10 years ago were:

Age: 23.5 hours

Lag time: 46 minutes

Elongation: 11°

% Illumination: 1%

Altitude: 8.1°

With 4 out of the 5 criteria met, and the 5th, elongation, very close, I still could not see this moon with my unaided eyes.  How then did I get this photo you ask?  I had a general idea of where the moon should have been in the sky and I pointed my camera lens in that area and tripped the shutter.  I actually made several photos panning the sky making sure I had sufficient overlap.  I was amazingly surprised to have caught the moon in the photo!

Yesterday in the SF Bay Area, in the same location as where the Rajab photo of 2005 was made, the moon had the following conditions:

Age: 24.85 hours

Lag time: 20 minutes

Elongation: 13.3°

% Illumination: 1.3%

Altitude: 3°

Yesterday’s moon only meets 3 out of the 5 criteria.  The above pictured moon met 4 out of 5 and was still not visible with the unaided eye.  I am not sure how yesterday’s moon was seen.  In the areas where the moon was claimed to have been seen, the same 3 out of 5 criteria as well were met.

Here is the interesting result.  In Chile, where it could have been seen, the criteria were:

Age: 20 hours

Lag time: 46 minutes

Elongation: 11°

% Illumination: 0.9%

Altitude: 9°

3 of the 5 criteria were met and the other two were very close to meeting the limits, and yet it was not seen!

What is more concerning is that the majority of the reports that we obtained by speaking directly to the claimants, did not describe the moon as the moon seen above in the photo of what a moon of this season and timing should look like.  One description given was a line that was flatter, oriented more towards the bottom with limbs more like 4 o’Clock to 7 o’Clock.  Two of the reports said that what they saw suddenly became very bright and shiny when they saw it.

All the of the claimants giving reports mentioned that they saw it very shortly after the sun set, within 2 to 7 minutes after sunset.  One of the claimants, reported that what he and his group saw appeared before the sun set.  Before sun set!

The first question that needs to be asked is does a person engaged in sighting the moon need to versed in astronomy and in particular the details related to the moon?  The answer is no.  I did not have that knowledge when I first started looking for the moon, but with experience these particulars become second nature.  Having knowledge about what the moon looks like in the sky, where in the sky it will appear, and its orientation will serve the seeker in not making erroneous sightings.  Any person can become a skilled moonsighter whether they are an upright Muslim or not.  The character of an upright Muslim is not a shield that prevents erroneous sightings from being made.  At the same time an erroneous sighting made by an upright Muslim does not in any way imply anything about the person’s character.  Inexperience and ignorance of the details about the nature of the moon is what brings about the erroneous reports but does not put the person’s character in question.

Moving on, the optimal time of crescent visibility on the evening of a new moon occurs when the the contrast between the moon and the evening sky reaches its maximum.  Two things need to happen for this maximum contrast to occur.  First, the sky needs to darken and at the same time as the sky darkens, the moon starts to brighten.  Maximum contrast takes place at 4/9ths of the lag time.  That is, the lag time is taken and divided into 9 parts.  Then adding 4 of those parts will indicate when the best viewing time occurs.  Last night here in California, with lag times of 20 minutes, 4/9ths amounts to 8 minutes and 53 seconds after sunset.  And for an easily seen moon, with a lag time of 40 minutes this amounts to 17 minutes and 45 seconds.  So, one would need almost 18 minutes for the moon to reach the optimal contrast in the sky for a moon that is easily seen by the unaided eye.  Last night, the moon only had a lag time just slightly longer than the optimal time.  Far from ideal.  At 2 to 7 minutes after sunset, the sky would be so bright and the crescent so dim, that it is nearly invisible at that time.  And before sunset, if the sun itself does not blind the eyes, its brightness will certainly limit anything you can see in the sky near the sun.

We live in a time in which our skies are filled with many flying objects.  Objects that did not exist at the time of the Prophet Muhammad, peace be upon him, and not for more than 1000 years after His time.  Those flying objects leave many traces in the sky that can easily be misconstrued as the crescent moon to the inexperienced and unskilled seeker of the moon.  Here is a link to a small gallery of photos of just such traces that can easily be mistaken for the moon.  And in fact, many times when interviewing claimants, these are the exact items that they describe to us.  Here is the link

I do not know what those claimants saw on Thursday evening.  I am not accusing anyone of anything.  They saw what they saw and they reported it as such.  They were honest and sincere, and may they be rewarded accordingly by our Creator.

What concerned me in this whole affair is why were their reports not examined with more scrutiny by those who were charged with making a decision about breaking the fast?  There were more details involved than I have mentioned that needed to be addressed.  I and another friend working with me did.  Before we even had spoken to half those claimants who had a report, the decision to break the fast, based simply on that those reports were made, had already been made by most mosques and organizations.  Confusion was rampant all night long.

So what happened last night?  I am not entirely sure.  I was content and certain the moon had not been seen.  My Ramadan did not end last night.  I was not even going to voice my concerns as over the years I have learned this only stirs the drama pot and makes things worse.  That was until I saw this…

This is, in a sad and hilarious way, what I feel is happening.  My pressing question though is, the Minions of Who?  Minions of the One Eye, the Nafs…Who?

Later tonight I will be heading out once more to seek out the new moon.  I will of course be photographing it and it will, insha Allah (God willing) be posted here on Organic Light Pan.

I wish everyone, and I mean everyone, a most Blessed Eid, filled with love, laughter, family, friends and joy, and may you receive all the rewards of fasting the month of Ramadan.  May our Creator forgive us all for our mistakes and trespasses and bring our hearts together in love and brotherhood and sisterhood.

To all, Eid Mubarak and Peace!

Years ago I heard a fabulous Hadith, a tradition from the Prophet Muhammad, peace and blessing s of God upon him.

Abu Hurairah (May God be pleased with him) narrated that the Messenger of Allah (peace and blessings of God upon him) said: “Every deed of the son of Adam will be multiplied, a Hasanah (a good deed) will be multiplied to ten its like, up to seven hundred times. Allah, the Mighty and Sublime, said: ‘Except fasting. It is for Me and I shall reward for it. He gives up his desires and his food for my sake.’ The fasting person will have two moments of joy: Joy when he breaks his fast, and joy when he meets his Lord. And indeed the smell of his mouth is better to Allah than the fragrance of musk.” [The Book of Fasting: Sahih Muslim]

Today I experienced this first moment of joy when I broke my fast.  I was not particularly hungry or thirsty, but a little run down and tired.  However when I bit into that date my mouth danced!  And when I drank that cool water, my throat was beyond what words could explain.  A smile came across my face and I was so happy.  Not that I broke my fast, but that I was experiencing what God said would be one of the two moments of joy.  I can’t even imagine what the other must be like for the fasters.